SINGAPORE GE2025: GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY LIKELY SHAPE VOTE

By Noor Bakhtiar Ahmad

KUALA LUMPUR, May 1 (Bernama) -- The Singapore General Election 2025 (GE2025) is unfolding against a backdrop of rising global uncertainty, with economic concerns and geopolitical shifts expected to shape voter sentiment.

Geopolitical expert Prof Dr James Chin said that while the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) is widely expected to retain power, the real test will be whether it can secure a strong share of the popular vote.

Analysts view the 61 per cent threshold, the PAP’s share in the last general election, as a symbolic benchmark of success.

“Singapore has managed the 4G leadership transition well. No one expects this new generation to be weak,” Chin told Bernama International News Service on Thursday (May 1).

The University of Tasmania academic said the most significant factor in this election is not the leadership shift.

“The real issue is that Singapore is facing very uncertain times,” he said.

Chin, an expert in both geopolitical and Asian studies, noted that Singapore’s heavy reliance on global trade makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks, especially those stemming from the US trade policies, which are reshaping global economic structures.

“In President Donald Trump’s era, the fear in Singapore is about the future of their economy and their position in the global trade network,” he said.

In this environment of uncertainty, Chin noted, voters are more likely to favour continuity and stability, which could work in the PAP’s favour.

“If the PAP secures 61 per cent of the popular vote again, it will be seen as a major success. Whether they can do it remains to be seen, but the factors favouring them are the recent leadership transition and the economic fears stemming from Trump’s trade agenda,” he said.

Chin added that Singaporeans tend to vote conservatively when the future feels uncertain, a trend mirrored in other Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia.

Meanwhile, sociopolitical analyst Datuk Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi from Universiti Malaya said he sees the cost of living emerging as the main issue in GE2025, particularly with the increase in the Goods and Services Tax (GST), food and housing prices, as well as the widening wealth gap.

He said concerns over immigration and competition in the job market also play a significant role, especially among the middle class and skilled workers who feel that Singapore's open-door policies are affecting them.

“However, the opposition—particularly the Workers’ Party (WP), Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), and Progress Singapore Party (PSP)—still face constraints in terms of widespread grassroots outreach, even though their manifestos are generally more detailed compared to those presented by the PAP,” he said.

He added that although often seen as lacking administrative experience, several opposition figures actually have strong professional backgrounds, including Professor Paul Tambyah from the SDP, who has served in Singapore’s Ministry of Health (MOH), and Dr Ong Lue Ping from the WP, who has experience at Singapore’s Institute of Mental Health (IMH).

“If the opposition can present themselves as an effective check and balance in Parliament, they have the potential to gain support from rationalist voters, particularly among the younger generation and professionals who increasingly demand alternative voices of representation,” he said.

-- BERNAMA