By Phar Kim Beng, PhD

There are few diplomatic arrangements in the world today that command the same convening power as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Both have mastered the art of strategic neutrality, not in the sense of being passive or indifferent, but rather as conveners of competing great powers – China and the United States among them – without being seen as partisan or antagonistic blocs.

With the upcoming ASEAN-GCC-China Summit, scheduled for May 2025, the world is witnessing a tripartite meeting of platforms that are adept at navigating global geopolitical tectonics without provoking fault lines of friction.

The essence of this summit is not confrontation, but accommodation – of both energy needs and shifting power dynamics.

ASEAN and GCC: Neutral Convenors of Competing Powers

Unlike Cold War-era blocs that often mirrored ideological divides, ASEAN and the GCC have grown into mature regional organisations defined by pragmatic diplomacy.

While ASEAN comprises states with diverse political systems – ranging from communist party-states to liberal democracies – it has institutionalised consensus-building through mechanisms like the East Asia Summit, ASEAN Regional Forum, and now, this trilateral engagement with China and the Gulf.

Similarly, the GCC has remained resilient even after internal disputes, particularly the 2017-2021 Gulf rift, and has re-emerged with a united front when it matters most: energy diplomacy, security, and strategic autonomy.

What both ASEAN and the GCC share is flexibility without fragmentation. They are not antagonistic to China or the United States. Rather, they serve as conduits for both powers to pursue influence without risking open hostility.

Energy Security and the Transition to Green Futures

At the heart of this summit is the delicate balance between energy security and ecological responsibility.

The GCC remains the world’s most vital energy exporter, while ASEAN, though varied in its energy profiles, is increasingly crucial in LNG trade, palm oil biodiesel, and solar panel production.

China, on the other hand, remains both the world’s largest energy consumer and its green technology forerunner.

The United States, though momentarily inward-looking under Trump’s second presidency, cannot stay disengaged for long without forfeiting its global leadership mantle.

ASEAN and GCC are thus not merely “middle powers”, but pivot regions – zones where energy meets diplomacy, and technology meets political foresight. Whether it is China’s Belt and Road Initiative or Washington’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, both initiatives must pass through ASEAN and, increasingly, the Gulf.

Accommodating Ambitions without Picking Sides

There is a new vocabulary that defines this era – multipolarity with asymmetry. Neither China nor the United States is in terminal decline, but both are deeply aware of their limitations.

ASEAN and the GCC are well-positioned to help both great powers save face, recalibrate their ambitions, and manage rivalry without rupture. These regions offer what no other actor can: legitimacy without hegemony.

China’s rise is structural – driven by trade, infrastructure, and digital ecosystems.

The United States, however, retains decisive influence through finance, security networks, and soft power.

ASEAN and GCC, by engaging both, are not “balancing” in the traditional realist sense, but rather creating a new choreography – facilitating the ebb and flow of great power ambitions without enabling a zero-sum game.

What to Watch in the Summit middle or end of May 2025

First, expect a renewed call for connectivity – digital, physical, and institutional.

China’s Digital Silk Road, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, and ASEAN’s Master Plan on Connectivity are not mutually exclusive. Instead, they can be synergised for mutual benefit.

Second, anticipate discussions on new supply chain routes and critical minerals cooperation, especially in semiconductors, green hydrogen, and rare earths.

The GCC’s sovereign wealth funds are already investing in Southeast Asian startups and infrastructure.

Likewise, ASEAN firms are eyeing the Gulf for halal food exports, fintech, and construction services.

Third, the summit may serve as a subtle diplomatic circuit breaker – providing a forum for China and the United States (both present in spirit, if not at the same table) to temper their tariff wars and hardline postures through third-party dialogue.

Conclusion: Not a Theatre for Contest, but a Platform for Rebalance

The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit should not be mistaken as a response to any one power’s policy. It is, instead, a pre-emptive exercise in collective foresight – a signal that the world’s most strategically positioned regions are no longer content with being arenas of competition.

They seek to be authors of accommodation, drawing the contours of a world where rivalry does not collapse into rupture, and where the urgent transition to green economies can happen without sabotaging global stability.

As the world moves into an era where the old rules no longer suffice, it is platforms like this summit that remind us: the future belongs not to the loudest, but to those who can convene, cooperate, and cohere.

-- BERNAMA

Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is Professor of ASEAN Studies at International Islamic University Malaysia.