By Phar Kim Beng

Regardless of how one sees it – whether it is the United States’ abandonment of its Trans-Atlantic ally, i.e. Western Europe and its Special Relations with the United Kingdom – the meeting with United States’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Feb 18, 2025, is of monumental significance.

Hosted by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, it signifies the enormous confidence of the United States and Russia in the oil-rich state of Saudi Arabia.

Coming on the heels of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad of Syria in the week of Dec 8, 2024, with the president having run to Moscow as a political refugee, only to allow the likes of Turkey, the United States and Israel to dominate various parts of the war-ravaged country, Washington DC and Moscow are showing a renewed confidence to work with each other in the Global South. Invariably, of their own choosing.

ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Relations

This marks a good sign for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is hosting its inaugural meeting with the Gulf Cooperation Council in Kuala Lumpur this May 2025, to have an even stronger meeting with the GCC.

What is lined up is not merely an ASEAN-GCC Summit with China only but potentially with the United States too. Although in the latter, what is lined up in the months ahead is strictly an ASEAN-US Summit.

When the US relationship with Russia begins to regain its old momentum prior to the Crimean War in 2014, what is in the book could well be an ASEAN and Russian Summit too.

Given the role of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, the Chairman of ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025, to pull together various contentious great powers to work hand-in-hand with ASEAN and GCC, short of ASEAN constantly reaching out to the motley group of countries known as BRICS i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, indeed the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), what the world will see will be very novel.

The thawing of Russia and US relations will not merely herald a potential end to the Pan Slavic conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the emergence of great powers searching for more prominent locations in the Global South to bridge their differences.

US-Russia Relations

For now, the world, however, should concentrate on the dyad of the Russian and US relations. Why? This is because the two did not get along during the Cold War.

When the Cold War ended in 1989, expectations were high that the United States and Russia could reconcile their historic rivalries. As events showed, they didn't.

Almost all the US presidents and Western leaders could not get along with Russian President Vladimir Putin throughout his rule over Russia. Things are now changing dramatically.

Ironically, although China and Russia have a Treaty of Unlimited Cooperation signed on Feb 3, 2022, the extent and speed at which the United States and Russia can overcome their differences from the past will signal the possibility of Moscow and Washington DC trying to prevent China from rising at all.

Managing ASEAN’s Relationship

ASEAN must manage its relationship with all great powers carefully. Nor should it ignore powers such as India and Saudi Arabia.

Anyway, when US-Russia relations improve, ASEAN could benefit in several ways, mainly in security, trade and regional stability. Anwar should take note of them to convert them into viable economic relationships that can enhance his own electoral base in anticipation of the next General Election, expected in 2027.

First and foremost, reduced geopolitical tensions in ASEAN's backyard will come from a warmer relationship between the United States and Russia.

China will also fight tooth and claw to protect its advances in ASEAN.

The United States and Russia are both active in the Asia-Pacific region. If they de-escalate their global rivalry, ASEAN countries might avoid being pressured to take sides.

This could lead to a more predictable security environment, reducing risks of proxy conflicts in areas like the South China Sea.

In Riyadh, the Trump Administration already spoke of less sanctions against Russia.

This would suggest more trade between the two. If US-Russia relations improve, sanctions on Russia might ease, allowing ASEAN nations to trade more freely with both.

More importantly, diversification will also happen. ASEAN could attract more Russian investments and technology transfers while maintaining strong economic ties with the United States.

Just as importantly, energy security – Russia is a major energy supplier – will be a boon to ASEAN too.

Improved US-Russia ties could stabilise global oil and gas markets, benefiting the ASEAN economies enormously.

On the diplomatic front, an ASEAN that often follows a "non-aligned" approach will benefit too.

If US-Russia tensions decrease, ASEAN could position itself as a neutral ground for diplomacy.

The latest developments in Riyadh might strengthen ASEAN-led forums like the East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) as platforms for global powers to engage constructively.

To be sure, military and defence balance might also be restored. Many ASEAN states do buy weapons from both the United States and Russia (e.g., Vietnam and Indonesia).

Improved relations could mean fewer restrictions on military cooperation. A thaw in US-Russia ties could also reduce the risk of a global arms race spilling into Southeast Asia.

With less global tension, ASEAN could push for more cooperation on climate change, infrastructure, and regional trade agreements rather than being caught in superpower rivalries. However, are there any potential downsides? Yes.

If the United States and Russia become too friendly, China might react by strengthening its influence over ASEAN, which could shift the regional balance.

Some ASEAN states (like Vietnam) rely on US support against China. If the US focus shifts to Russia, it might weaken ASEAN’s strategic leverage.

ASEAN Stands to Gain

Overall, improved US-Russia relations would likely be a net positive for ASEAN, providing stability, economic growth, and diplomatic flexibility. The developments in Riyadh and beyond could also see ASEAN taking a more active role in global diplomacy in such a scenario.

All said, Anwar and ASEAN will benefit from the end to the conflict between the Ukraine against Russia. Indeed, with the United States too. However, as mentioned earlier, if the United States and Russia are too close, China will feel threatened that the two would try to split China from ASEAN in due course.

Anwar has to exercise due caution to find the right middle point in all of Malaysia's relationships with all great powers, even the likes of EU.

For now, Malaysia should be glad that it has a good relationship with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two of the most unstintingly tireless countries that try to establish some form of equal-distance with all great powers.

-- BERNAMA

Phar Kim Beng is Professor of ASEAN Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM).